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Tracking the triumvirate

22 June 2006  

Investment in the business applications market is no longer an easy indicator of the health of the IT industry.

Three large software suppliers – PeopleSoft, JD Edwards and Siebel – have now been subsumed into database and applications giant Oracle, while privately held Infor, which already owns formerly listed Mapics, JBA and GEAC, will shortly complete its takeover of SSA Global Technologies, which in turn took over scores of companies including Baan, and Marcam.

That leaves a triumvirate. SAP, which reported its first quarter back in April, enjoyed an 18% boost in sales to $2.45 billion, with net profits up from $304.8 million to $338.4 million. “We continued to gain market share from Oracle,” SAP chief executive Henning Kagermann said then.

But this month it was time for self-congratulation at Oracle, which has, at times, looked less secure than SAP and has, of course, been embroiled in those somewhat messy acquisitions. Its strategy appeared to be vindicated, though, with sales up 25% to $4.85 billion in its traditionally strong fourth quarter, and profits are up from $1.0 billion to $1.3 billion. A bullish Larry Ellison, the company’s CEO and founder, says Oracle had taken market share in its three main markets – applications (from SAP), databases and middleware. That is impressive – it seems that SAP and Oracle are both doing so well, they are taking sales off each other.

A more verifiable fact is that Oracle is selling lots of new software. Database licence revenue was up 18%, and application licence sales were up 83% (with the inclusion of CRM software maker Siebel and another acquired company, retail software vendor, Retek). However, licence fees still rose 56% even if the impact of these is discounted. For the year ahead, both SAP and Oracle issued strong forecasts.

Meanwhile, SSA, which has now listed twice and been taken private twice, issued its last quarter as a public company – at least for a while. Making sense of SSA’s figures is not easy. Sales were up 8% to $194.5 million, taking annual revenues to $712 million, but much of this rise could be accounted for its acquisition of CRM vendor Epiphany. Net profits halved from $9.2 million to $4.6 million in the quarter, hit by acquisition costs. Overall, SSA brings to its new parent, Infor, a company with steady, rather than fast-growing revenues.

This month’s figures are also muddied by two sets of numbers that are incomplete: CA, with a history of accounting scandals, is struggling again to get a clear picture of its exact numbers, due to a problem with sales commissions; and Progress Software, the database, middleware and tools company with a squeaky clean history, was able to report a solid increase in revenues but, due a problem with options grants, could give no profit figures.

In a preliminary statement ahead of its delayed results, CA admitted to two problems - first, with its granting of stock options to employees, and separately, with the possible under-reporting of some subscription revenues. US press reports suggest that CA may have paid commission to multiple employees for the same sale. Wall Street, long wary of financial shenanigans under the old management, has taken a harsh view, trashing its stock. The problems are probably a one-off, but CA must also explain the fact that licence growth has stalled.

Over at Progress, Joe Alsop, the founder and CEO, said that its DataDirect, Sonic (ESB) and Real Time product lines delivered solid revenue increases – scotching some rumours to the contrary in the market.

Meanwhile, one company that should be in this list, but is not, is iSoft, the UK data integration and healthcare technology company. The troubled company was flying high a year ago, with pre-tax profits of £45 million on sales of £262 million. But it has had an 'annus horribilis', having been blamed by its partner Accenture for serious problems in implementing a key part of the NHS IT project. Although still profitable, customers are delaying contracts, and iSoft delayed its financial results while it negotiated with banks, with Accenture and with NHS managers.

Accenture, incidentally, which made a $450 million provision against the effects of the NHS problems in its second quarter, recovered in its third quarter, with revenues up 7% to $4.8 billion. Net profits beat expectations, at $342.3 million, up from $305.3 million. CEO William Green said new bookings of $5.57 billion were the highest in nine quarters.

And what about SCO, the operating system and tools company which not only had the misfortune to offer operating system products which competed both with Microsoft and with Linux, but which has declared war on the Linux community with a series of lawsuits?

The company reported a loss of $4.7 million on sales of just $7.1 million, highlighting an unsustainable situation given the maturity of its products and the competition it faces. But SCO is still ambitious, launching mobile products and continuing with its lawsuits (principally against IBM). Linux supporters who hope it will go away should be warned – the company still has more than $20 million in cash or equivalents, having raised £10 million last year in a share placing. SCO’s lawyers, altruistic as ever, have secured their position, insisting that the money for their fees is held in escrow.

Click here to download a full table of key IT suppliers' June financial results 

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